Ageing Population

Statistics

Picture of an elderly woman. A population ages when increases in the proportion of older persons (that is, those aged 60 years or over) are accompanied by reductions in the proportion of children (persons under age 15) and then by declines in the proportions of persons in the working ages (15 to 59).

At the world level, the number of older persons is expected to exceed the number of children for the first time in 2047. In the more developed regions, where population ageing is far advanced, the number of children dropped below that of older persons in 1998.

Since 1950 the proportion of older persons has been rising steadily, passing from 8% in 1950 to 11% in 2007, and is expected to reach 22% in 2050. As long as old age mortality continues to decline and fertility remains low, the proportion of older persons will continue to increase.

UK [1]

Population

There are nearly 12 million pensioners, almost 1 in 5 of the UK’s total population
There are 20.5 million people aged 50 years and over, over a third of the total UK population
There are 9,687,800 people in the UK aged 65 and above
About one and a quarter million people are aged 85 or over
There are eleven thousand centenarians

Population projections

The number of people aged 65 years and over is expected to rise by over 60% in the next 25 years to over 15.8 million in 2031
The percentage of the total population who are over 65 is predicted to rise from 16% to over 22% in 2031 and nearly 26% in 2071
The number of people over 85 in the UK is predicted to double in the next 20 years and treble in the next 30
The population over 75 is projected to double in the next 30 years, while the under 16 population is set to decline slightly

Long-term illness

37% of people in Great Britain aged 65-74 and 47% of those aged 75+ have a limiting longstanding illness

Sensory impairment

In the UK 42% of people over 75 will develop cataracts, almost 50% will have agerelated macular degeneration
28% of people aged 65+ have difficulties with their eyesight
55% of people aged 60+ are deaf or hard of hearing

Mental health

Nearly 700,000 people are estimated to be suffering from dementia in the UK in 2007 and, by 2025, the number is expected to rise to one million
Alzheimer's affects 1 person in 4 over the age of 85. This rises to 1 in 3 for people over 90
Depression affects about 1 person in 8 over 65

Strokes

There are over 100,000 first strokes every year in the UK, 90% of these affect people over 65 years

USA [2]

Picture of an elderly man wearing glasses.

By 2030, there will be 71 million American older adults accounting for roughly 20% of the U.S. population

Japan [3]

Japan’s elderly population is expected to reach 26% (33.8 million) of the total by 2015 - one in four Japanese will be 65 or older - and 40.5% (36.4 million) by 2055

Global [4]

Blindness

19% of the world’s population is aged 50 or over, but over 82% of the world’s blind are in that age group
Age related cataract is responsible for 48% of world blindness, which represents about 17.6 million people

Global [5]

In 2000, the population aged 60 years or over numbered 600 million, triple the number present in 1950. In 2006, the number of older persons had surpassed 700 million. By 2050, 2 billion older persons are projected to be alive, implying that their number will once again triple over a span of 50 years
Globally the population of older persons is growing at a rate of 2.6% per year, considerably faster than the population as a whole which is increasing at 1.1% annually. At least until 2050, the older population is expected to continue growing more rapidly than the population in other age groups
Marked differences exist between developed and developing regions in the number and proportion of older persons. In the more developed regions, over a fifth of the population is currently aged 60 years or over and by 2050, nearly a third of the population in developed countries is projected to be in that age group. In the less developed regions, older persons account today for just 8% of the population but by 2050 they are expected to account for a fifth of the population, implying that, by mid-century, the developing world is likely to reach the same stage in the process of population ageing that the developed world is already at
The pace of population ageing is faster in developing countries than in developed countries. Consequently, developing countries will have less time to adjust to the consequences of population ageing
The population of older persons is itself ageing. Among those aged 60 years or over, the fastest growing population is that of the oldest-old, that is, those aged 80 years or over. Their numbers are currently increasing at 3.9% per year. Today, persons aged 80 years or over account for about 1 in every 8 older persons (60 or over). By 2050, this ratio is expected to increase to approximately 2 persons aged 80 or over among every 10 older persons
Because women live longer than men, women constitute the majority of older persons. Currently, women outnumber men by about 70 million among those aged 60 years or over. Among those aged 80 years or over, women are nearly twice as numerous as men, and among centenarians women are between four and five times as numerous as men

In sum, as a result of the transition from high to low fertility and the continuous reduction of adult mortality, the population of most countries of the world is ageing. This unprecedented demographic change, which started in the developed world in the nineteenth century and is more recent in developing countries, is already transforming many societies. The ageing process is expected to accelerate in the near future, particularly in developing countries.

Further information

Age Concern (2008) Older people in the United Kingdom - Key facts and statistics 2008. [accessed 06/01/09].
HelpAge International (2007) Facts and figures: global ageing. [accessed 06/01/09].
Help the Aged (2008) Facts and figures. [accessed 06/01/09].
National Statistics (2005) Focus on older people. [accessed 06/01/09].

Acknowledgements

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2007) World population ageing 2007. New York: United Nations.

[1] Help the Aged (2008) Facts and figures. [accessed 05/02/08].

[2] Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and The Merck Company Foundation (2007) The State of Aging and Health in America 2007 Report. [accessed 04/02/08].

[3] Fuyuno, I. (2007) Ageing Society in Japan - Part 1. Tokyo: The British Embassy.

[4] Help the Aged (2008) Facts and figures. [accessed 05/02/08].

[5] United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2007) World population ageing 2007. New York: United Nations.

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